Wars And Ethnic Conflicts Make A Toll On Human Rights Records Pdf

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The quality of writing and accessibility, as well as the excellent way the material is organized, suggests that it will command an interest among undergraduates in international relations, politics and the growing peace studies branches of social sciences.

This section discusses conflicts and disputes that can arise in community organisations, and looks at ways of minimising or resolving them in a fair and open manner. Informal and formal conflict resolution procedures are described. Many people try to avoid conflict at all costs. Others tend to blame someone or something else for causing it. These responses do not resolve conflict and may make the situation worse.

COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch

Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. Crisis Group identifies seven points of particular concern. The COVID pandemic unquestionably presents an era-defining challenge to public health and the global economy.

Its political consequences, both short- and long-term, are less well understood. The global outbreak has the potential to wreak havoc in fragile states, trigger widespread unrest and severely test international crisis management systems.

Its implications are especially serious for those caught in the midst of conflict if, as seems likely, the disease disrupts humanitarian aid flows, limits peace operations and postpones or distracts conflict parties from nascent as well as ongoing efforts at diplomacy.

Unscrupulous leaders may exploit the pandemic to advance their objectives in ways that exacerbate domestic or international crises — cracking down on dissent at home or escalating conflicts with rival states — on the assumption that they will get away with it while the world is otherwise occupied. It is not yet clear when and where the virus will hit hardest, and how economic, social and political factors may converge to spark or aggravate crises.

Natural disasters have sometimes resulted in the diminution of conflicts, as rival parties have had to work together, or at least maintain calm, to focus on preserving and rebuilding their societies. There have been a few signs of governments trying to ease political tensions in the shadow of COVID with, for example, the United Arab Emirates UAE and Kuwait offering Iran — centre of one of the worst initial outbreaks outside China — humanitarian assistance.

If the pandemic is likely to worsen some crises internationally, it may also create windows to improve others. The coming months will be acutely risky, with the U. With the exception of Iran, in its first phase COVID mainly affected states — including China, South Korea and Italy — that had resources to manage the problem, albeit unevenly and at the cost of severe strains on their health systems and economies.

To date, there have been fewer reported cases in countries with weaker health systems, lower state capability or significant internal conflict, where consequences of an outbreak could be overwhelming. That is of little solace, however. Confirmed case numbers are ticking up in fragile parts of the Arab world and Africa. The suffering that would cause is hard to overstate. If the disease spreads in densely packed urban centres in fragile states, it may be virtually impossible to control.

The dramatic economic slowdown already under way will disrupt trade flows and create unemployment that will do damage at levels that are hard to forecast and grim to contemplate. A recession could take a particularly heavy toll on fragile states where there is greatest potential for unrest and conflict. All governments face hard choices about how to manage the virus. Countries from the Schengen area to Sudan have already imposed border restrictions.

Many are placing partial or blanket bans on public gatherings or insisting that citizens shelter at home. These are necessary but also costly measures, especially given projections that the pandemic could continue for well over a year until a vaccine becomes available.

The economic impact of restricting movement for months on end is likely to be devastating. These are universal problems, but as an organisation focusing on early warning and conflict prevention, Crisis Group is especially concerned with places where the global health challenge intersects with wars or political conditions — such as weak institutions, communal tensions, lack of trust in leaders and inter-state rivalries — that could give rise to new crises or exacerbate existing ones.

We also hope to identify cases where the disease could, with effective diplomacy, stimulate reductions in tensions. This briefing, the first in a series of Crisis Group publications on COVID and its effects on the conflict landscape, draws primarily from the input of our analysts across the globe, and identifies seven trends to watch during the pandemic.

The populations of conflict-affected countries — whether those in war or suffering its after-effects — are likely to be especially vulnerable to outbreaks of disease. For previous studies of conflict, public health and pandemics, see Maire A. Connolly and David L. Jamieson et al. In many cases, war or prolonged unrest, especially when compounded by mismanagement, corruption or foreign sanctions, have left national health systems profoundly ill-prepared for COVID Hide Footnote In Venezuela, as Crisis Group warned would happen in , the standoff between the chavista government and opposition has hollowed out health services.

Hide Footnote In Gaza, where a healthcare system weakened by years of blockade was ill equipped to serve the high-density population long before COVID, the Health Ministry is scrambling to gather the experts and obtain the supplies necessary for when the disease sweeps in. It appears to be an uphill climb: medical suppliers serving the region told Crisis Group that they had run out of key items even before the ministry announced two COVID cases on 21 March.

On top of such institutional problems, it can be hard to persuade populations with little trust in government or political leaders to follow public health directives. Hide Footnote The doubts stemmed in part from misinformation and poor advice about the contagion from the governments involved but also from recurrent political tensions in a region scarred by war in the previous decade. In cases of active conflict, national and international medics and humanitarian actors may struggle to get relief to people in need.

At times, combatants targeted doctors and medical facilities themselves. Although the Congolese authorities and WHO apparently succeeded in ending the outbreak in recent months, the disease lasted far longer and claimed far many more lives with a confirmed 2, fatalities than would have been the case in a stable area. The areas of active conflict at highest immediate risk of COVID outbreaks may be north-western Syria, around the besieged enclave of Idlib, and Yemen.

Both countries have already experienced health crises during their civil wars, with violence impeding the international response to an outbreak of polio in Syria in and cholera in Yemen from onward. UN officials have now raised the alarm about COVID infecting the population of Idlib, where a Russian-backed offensive by government forces has systematically targeted hospitals and other medical facilities and led to the displacement of over one million people in the last six months alone.

Hide Footnote Many people fleeing clashes sleep in fields or under trees, and basic hygiene and social distancing practices are made impossible by the lack of running water or soap as well as cramped living spaces. Delivery of vital test kits has been delayed by weeks.

In Yemen, war since has decimated what even before was a very weak heath system. Over 24 million people already require humanitarian assistance. Hide Footnote After de facto authorities in the capital city of Sanaa and the internationally recognised government in Aden banned international flights to prevent the virus from spreading, international relief teams reduced their numbers to essential staff.

In Idlib, Yemen and beyond, internally displaced persons IDPs , asylum seekers and refugees are particularly exposed to outbreaks of COVID, given their frequently squalid living conditions and limited access to health care. Data released by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in suggest that over 70 million people fall into these categories of displacement globally, and the number has most likely risen since then, especially given events in Syria.

Hide Footnote Whatever narrow avenues might have existed for displaced persons to move or be resettled to safer and more secure locations are, for all intents and purposes, now shut off due to COVID There is a long history of contagion spiking in IDP and refugee camps, a risk that now looms again, although in some areas medical services available in camps may be better than those for surrounding populations.

Also of concern are the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, where over one million people live in overcrowded conditions, with sanitation facilities and health care services limited to a bare minimum. Hide Footnote A government ban on internet and mobile phone services in the camps limits access to vital preventive information, while high levels of malnutrition likely imply that both the refugees and local residents are more susceptible to the disease.

In these cases — as for displaced communities in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, Africa and Asia — there is a risk that IDPs and refugees facing large-scale outbreaks of COVID in the camps where they reside may aim to flee again to safety, leading local populations or authorities to react forcefully to contain them, which creates the potential for escalating violence.

States attempting to stop the spread of the disease are likely to view new refugee flows fearfully. Colombia and Brazil, for example, closed their borders with Venezuela after previously taking a relatively generous approach to those fleeing the crisis there, but the pressure to escape worsening poverty and health risks in Venezuela could force rising numbers of migrants to use illegal crossings. Having announced the closure of its southern border to all non-essential traffic from 21 March, the U.

El Salvador and Guatemala nevertheless suspended in mid-March all incoming flights of Central American deportees from the U. The service to Guatemala has since resumed, but it remains to be seen whether Washington can continue to export deportees when both these countries have grounded all other international passenger flights. Many deportees are likely to face the choice of heading back to the U.

Exposed to sexual exploitation or abuse, with their rehabilitation or integration back into communities a low priority for feeble or indifferent governments, displaced women and children stand poised to be affected fast and first by the economic crises that will accompany the spread of the disease. One reason why refugee and IDP populations are likely to be especially vulnerable to COVID is that the disease could severely weaken the capacity of international institutions to serve conflict-affected areas.

WHO and other international officials fear that restrictions associated with the disease will impede humanitarian supply chains. But humanitarian agencies are not the only parts of the multilateral system under pressure due to the pandemic, which is also likely to curb peacemaking. Travel restrictions have begun to weigh on international mediation efforts. UN envoys working in the Middle East have been blocked from travelling to and within the region due to airport closures.

Regional organisations have suspended diplomatic initiatives in areas ranging from the South Caucasus to West Africa, while the envoy of the International Contact Group on Venezuela — a group of European and Latin American states looking for a diplomatic solution to the crisis there — had to cancel an already long-delayed trip to Caracas in early March for COVID-related reasons.

Hide Footnote. Hide Footnote The disease could affect crucial intra-Afghan peace talks planned as a follow-up to the February preliminary agreement between the U. More broadly, the disease means that international leaders, focused as they are on dramatic domestic issues, have little or no time to devote to conflicts or peace processes. European officials say that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya a priority for Berlin and Brussels in February are no longer receiving high-level attention.

Diplomats working to prevent a deadly showdown in northern Yemen desperately need the time and energy of senior Saudi and U. The disease could also affect multinational peacekeeping and security assistance efforts. In early March, the UN secretariat asked a group of nine peacekeeping troop contributors — including China and Italy — to suspend some or all unit rotations to blue helmet operations due to concerns about the spread of COVID Hide Footnote While these diplomatic and operational decisions will have no immediate impact on UN operations, a prolonged pandemic could make it difficult to find and deploy fresh forces and civilian personnel, wearing down missions.

If international organisations may struggle to handle the crisis, media outlets and NGOs may also find it hard to report on conflict and crises due to travel restrictions, even as many readers and viewers are likely at least temporarily to lose interest in non-COVIDrelated stories. Some authoritarian governments seem ready to use the crisis to limit media access. Egypt has, for example, censured Western reporters for their coverage of the disease inside the country — removing the credentials of a Guardian reporter — while China has sent home a number of leading U.

As this briefing illustrates, we are determined to keep a spotlight on conflicts — whether related to COVID or not — and provide the best coverage possible, but our work will face inevitable constraints. COVID could place great stress on societies and political systems, creating the potential for new outbreaks of violence.

In the short term, the threat of disease is likely acting as a deterrent to popular unrest, as protesters avoid large gatherings. Hide Footnote There has been a decline, too, in the numbers of protesters taking to the streets in Algeria to challenge government corruption. Hide Footnote At least one exception to this general caution occurred in Niger, where demonstrators took to the streets against rules barring protest, which the government extended by invoking COVID Three civilians were killed by security forces on 15 March.

Yet the quiet in the streets may be a temporary and misleading phenomenon. Early signs of social disorder already can be seen. In Ukraine, protesters attacked buses carrying Ukrainian evacuees from Wuhan, China, in response to allegations that some were carrying the disease.

Hide Footnote Prison breaks have been reported in Venezuela, Brazil and Italy, with inmates reacting violently to new restrictions associated with COVID, while in Colombia prison riots and a reported jailbreak over the perceived lack of protection from the disease resulted in the death of 23 inmates at La Modelo jail on 21 March.

Even reasonable precautions may inspire angry responses. In Peru, the authorities have arrested hundreds of citizens for breaking quarantine rules, in some cases leading to violence. It could do so whether or not the countries in question have experienced major outbreaks of the disease, although the danger in those that have will be magnified.

A global recession of as yet unknown scope lies ahead; pandemic-related transport restrictions will disrupt trade and food supplies; countless businesses will be forced to shut down; and unemployment levels are likely to soar. The U. Governments that have close trading ties with China, especially some in Africa, are feeling the pain of the slowdown emanating from the original Wuhan outbreak.

Hide Footnote Oil producers are already struggling with the collapse of energy prices. Abuja has reportedly considered cutting expenditures by 10 per cent in , meaning that authorities may have to default on promises to raise the minimum wage.

Hide Footnote Such austerity measures, combined with other economic effects of COVID — such as the disappearance of tourists in areas that depend heavily on foreign visitors — could lead to economic shocks that last well beyond the immediate crisis, creating the potential for prolonged labour disturbances and social instability.

Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2020

Our annual special report reviews the past year of data for 10 key conflicts with a look toward trends to watch in the coming months. To explore an interactive visualization of this special report, click here. To read the mid-year update, click here. In , the world witnessed a drastic increase in violent disorder that assumed many forms: protests from Lebanon to Hong Kong and Iraq to Chile; geopolitical competition in Yemen and Syria; dominant insurgencies in Somalia and Afghanistan; a cartel-insurgency in Mexico; and a diffuse, adaptable militant threat across the Sahel. Governments are also much more likely to use violence against their citizens without international reproach. The rise of authoritarianism — and impunity — has generated significant public reaction in the form of mass protest movements, but it has also increased the level of violence imposed upon civilians and political competition. In this report , ACLED has chosen 10 conflicts that demonstrate how violent political disorder is evolving in places it has festered for decades — such as Afghanistan — as well as in relatively new spaces — such as the United States.

COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch

Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. Crisis Group identifies seven points of particular concern. The COVID pandemic unquestionably presents an era-defining challenge to public health and the global economy.

Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. Crisis Group identifies seven points of particular concern. The COVID pandemic unquestionably presents an era-defining challenge to public health and the global economy. Its political consequences, both short- and long-term, are less well understood.

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Since civil war broke out in South Sudan in December , over 50, people have been killed—possibly as many as ,, according to a recent estimate —and nearly four million people have been internally displaced or fled to neighboring countries. After almost five years of civil war in South Sudan, Kiir and Machar participated in negotiations mediated by Uganda and Sudan in June Later that month, Kiir and Machar signed the Khartoum Declaration of Agreement that included a cease-fire and a pledge to negotiate a power-sharing agreement to end the war.

Час спустя, когда Беккер уже окончательно опоздал на свой матч, а Сьюзан откровенно проигнорировала трехстраничное послание на интеркоме, оба вдруг расхохотались. И вот эти два интеллектуала, казалось бы, неспособные на вспышки иррациональной влюбленности, обсуждая проблемы лингвистической морфологии и числовые генераторы, внезапно почувствовали себя подростками, и все вокруг окрасилось в радужные тона. Сьюзан ни слова не сказала об истинной причине своей беседы с Дэвидом Беккером - о том, что она собиралась предложить ему место в Отделе азиатской криптографии. Судя по той увлеченности, с которой молодой профессор говорил о преподавательской работе, из университета он не уйдет. Сьюзан решила не заводить деловых разговоров, чтобы не портить настроение ни ему ни .

 - Это что за фрукт. Соши пожала плечами. - Открыть. Ну и ну, - ужаснулась .

Global Conflict Tracker

Стратмор пока не сказал ей, что этот ключ представляет для него отнюдь не только академический интерес. Он думал, что сможет обойтись без ее участия - принимая во внимание ее склонность к самостоятельности - и сам найдет этот ключ, но уже столкнулся с проблемами, пытаясь самостоятельно запустить Следопыта. Рисковать еще раз ему не хотелось.

Халохот приблизился к внешней стене и стал целиться. Ноги Беккера скрылись из виду за поворотом, и Халохот выстрелил, но тут же понял, что выстрел пришелся в пустоту. Пуля срикошетила от стены. Рванувшись вниз за своей жертвой, он продолжал держаться вплотную к внешней стене, что позволило бы ему стрелять под наибольшим углом.

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Он потянул сильнее. Труп сдвинулся еще чуть-чуть. Тогда Стратмор напрягся и рванул тело изо всех сил.

Какими же программами он пользовался. Открыв меню последних программ, она обнаружила, что это был сервер электронной почты. Сьюзан обшарила весь жесткий диск и в конце концов нашла папку электронной почты, тщательно запрятанную среди других директорий. Открыв ее, она увидела несколько дополнительных папок; создавалось впечатление, что у Хейла было множество почтовых адресов.

Сохраняя ледяное спокойствие, Сьюзан ткнула указательным пальцем в твердокаменную грудь Хейла и заставила его остановиться. Хейл в шоке отпрянул, поняв, что она не шутит: Сьюзан Флетчер никогда еще до него не дотрагивалась, даже руки не коснулась. Правда, это было не то прикосновение, какое он рисовал в воображении, представляя себе их первый физический контакт, но все же… Хейл долго с изумлением смотрел на нее, затем медленно повернулся и направился к своему терминалу.

Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Human Rights: Tracing the Connections

 - Можно ли с его помощью найти ключ. Джабба всплеснул руками. - Ради всего святого.

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